Globally, beauty is now a $523B business, with the U.S. leading market share. As Stella Rising’s Elizabeth Timmis observes, even with anticipated shifts, the beauty industry is thriving. The rise of wellness has proved transformative, as have the trends of clean beauty, sustainability, and consumers positively correlating ingredient minimalism with good health.

The size of the U.S. color cosmetics market was estimated to be $17.3 billion in 2018, according to Mintel. Growth over the next few years is still expected, and the category is expected to reach $21.6 billion in 2023. The slowdown is largely due to multiple years of hyper-consumption; having seen the greatest success during the prior period, premium cosmetics now feels the downturn the most, Timmins notes. Although color cosmetics are expected to grow through 2023, skincare is anticipated to accelerate and maintain its dominance.

Health, personal care, and beauty e-comm overall is experiencing an 18.6 percent lift for 2019, the second-highest increase behind food and beverage, according to Mintel. While the category as a whole is flourishing, within the U.S., skincare is the growth driver. Skincare leads in retail value ($21.6 billion) and is predicted to grow by nearly 33 percent to $26.7 billion by 2023.

Timmis points out that for a multitude of reasons, skincare has overtaken color cosmetics in the minds and wallets of American beauty consumers, young women in particular. There are exceptions to the color cosmetics downturn—collaborations with large social media influencers being one, clean beauty being another—but overall the category is slowing for both mass and prestige brands.