A looming recession and rising inflation is signaling economic weakness according to The Conference Board. The think tank released its latest finding this month indicating that the U.S. economy will slide into recession by the end of the year. 

Drawing from numbers released from the Federal Reserve, The Conference board expects the Real GDP numbers for 2022 to reach 1.5 percent year over year, slowing as the 2023 approaches. 

The Conference Board does not believe the U.S. economy has reached the point of recession just yet, due to a tight labor market, however, it does predict a swift downturn as the year draws to a close. 

Predictions put the Real GDP to change from 0.3 percent to 0.5 percent by Q3 2022. This is due to updated economic indicators, including improved momentum at the beginning of the quarter. The outlook continues to trend downward as interest rates rise, with the GDP expected to drop below zero by Q4 2022. 

Non-residential investment is also expected to slow, according to The Conference Board. This is expected to cross over into residential investments too as the housing market adjusts to a lower equilibrium. 

High inflation will continue to create an economic stagnation, despite improved supply chain logistics and “hawkish” monetary policy. 

The unemployment rate is also expected to continue to grow, with jobless rates reaching 4.4 percent, still low by historical levels. Much of this is due to labor shortages, with jobseekers still holding the upper hand when it comes to employment perks and salary demands. 

The recession is expected to be short with several factors playing a role in the duration including the risk of a Federal Reserve hike, a major correction in the housing market and persistent inflation.