While consumer spending is expected to continue strengthening, the pace will probably moderate as enhanced unemployment benefits expire and stimulus checks are spent. A sustained pickup in inflation may also cause consumers to limit discretionary expenditures.

Olivia Rockeman, reporting for Bloomberg last week, after the Commerce Department reported that the total value of retail purchases fell 1.3 percent in May following an upwardly revised 0.9 percent gain in April. Additional analysis of this data is found in the Bloomberg story, "U.S. Retail Sales Drop, Hinting at Shift to Spending on Services."