NEW YORK—Despite what should be “historic headwinds,” eMarketer said that for 2020 it is now projecting “marginally positive holiday season growth rates” amid unprecedented channel-shifting behavior. In short, ecommerce’s impressive showing in 2020 will make up for a sizable deficit at brick-and-mortar retail.

The research firm said it anticipates total U.S. retail sales for the November–December holiday period hitting $1.013 trillion, an increase of 0.9 percent compared with last year and the second-ever season to eclipse the $1 trillion mark.

“This growth rate is the lowest since 2008, when the holiday season was in the throes of the financial crisis,” Andrew Lipsman, eMarketer’s principal analyst at Insider Intelligence and author of the recent report, “Holiday Shopping 2020,” said in a recent eMarketer post.

“Nevertheless, it’s a positive story to achieve growth at all, given the current economic backdrop,” he said.
There’s more to the story, though, the firm noted.

Brick-and-mortar sales—which will account for 81.2 percent of total U.S. holiday retail—are expected to decline 4.7 percent this holiday season, while e-commerce will jump 35.8 percent, according to eMarketer.

Despite the brick-and-mortar channel’s expected drop, results could be much worse. Data from Placer.ai, a location analytics firm, indicates that retail foot traffic has been in double-digit negative territory every month since the beginning of the pandemic. Even as foot traffic has rebounded in recent months—in September, weekly retail foot traffic varied between declines of 13 percent and 17 percent—foot traffic fell well below the 4.7 percent holiday sales decline we expect.

But brick-and-mortar’s resilience extends only so far, and it’s clear that the so-called “retail apocalypse” is a looming possibility. Retail store closures are on record pace this year, with Coresight Research reporting 7,990 closings versus just 3,354 openings through Sept. 18, 2020.

“The holiday season may be a last gasp for several more brick-and-mortar retailers that will face bankruptcy and/or additional store closings in 2021,” eMarketer noted.